SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level rise is an increase in the level of the world’s oceans due to the effects of global warming. Rises in localized sea level are based on thermal expansion and salinity, both of which are affected by increases in temperature. An increase in temperature naturally warms the oceans and contributes to salinity by adding fresh water to the ocean through the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Based on a Global Climate Models under the CMIP project in conjunction with the SimClim 2013 software package, the sea level rise projections for the south coast of Jamaica are as followed:

1. Under Representative Concentrative Pathway (RCP) 2.6 sea level rise is likely to be between 0.11 to 0.17m, 0.31 to 0.37 and 0.53 to 0.67m in the near, medium and long term future respectively
2. Under Representative Concentrative Pathway (RCP) 6.0 sea level rise is likely to be between 0.11 to 0.17m, 0.31 to 0.39 and 0.58 to 0.80m in the near, medium and long term future respectively.
3. Under Representative Concentrative Pathway (RCP) 8.5 sea level rise is likely to be between 0.12 to 0.18m, 0.35 to 0.45 and 0.74 to 1.08m in the near, medium and long term future respectively.