As sea level rises and storm patterns become more energetic, it will consequently affect most of the coastlines through inundation and increased erosion. If these processes are unchecked, it can result in the extinction of the globe’s sandy beach. Fueled by growing population and urbanization along the coast this can result in people’s homes and livelihoods being impacted in decades to come.
In terms of long-term erosion at the Norman Manley International Airport, a maximum of 0.86 meters of erosion and 0.96 meters of accretion has occurred along the various sections of the bounded shoreline based on the observation of historical aerial and satellite images of the area (years 2002 – 2020). In the period from 2002 to 2020, the shoreline accreted at a maximum rate of 0.7 m/yr and eroded at a maximum rate of 0.4 m/yr. With focus on the project area, it is estimated that sea level rise accounts for approximately 1.2- 28.7 m of erosion along the harbour side. In regards to the Caribbean Seaside, sea level rise would account for 1.2- 12.5 m of erosion along the harbour side. The most vulnerable area is along the north-eastern section of the shoreline.
Coastal erosion predicted for a 1:50yr storm event under future climate scenario