AAJ | Climate Change


Annual mean temperature is likely to be kept below 1.5°C above preindustrial levels under Representative Concentrative Pathway (RCP) 2.6, but under RCP 8.5 it is expected to increase at a rate of 0.4°C/decade till the end of century. Temperature climatologies of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to follow the unimodal pattern in the near, medium- and long-term future with higher temperature increase being observed in the summer months. This is true for both RCP 2.6 and 8.5. The temperature increases across months are however not uniform. Larger increases are observed in the winter months (December to February, with the largest increase in December) and smaller increases observed from May through to August for both RCPs.

Minimum, Mean and Maximum Air Temperature Climatologies based on Model Data. Differences between the Baseline Climatology and that for each Future Time Periods are also shown as dotted lines. Units are °C.